Forecast Desk
Leaderboard
Scored on accuracy and honesty about it. Saying “high confidence” and being wrong costs more than hedging and being wrong — so the ranking rewards readers who know what they don't know.
No forecasts have been scored yet. Once the first question resolves, this fills up.
How scoring works. Each resolved forecast earns 0–100 points.
A confident correct call is worth about 99; a hedged wrong one about 64; a confident wrong one about 19.
That ordering is deliberate — it means the way to climb is to be right and to be honest about how sure you were.
Readers with fewer than five resolved forecasts are marked provisional.